The U.S. Session Trader's Daily Forex Question

The U.S. session, trader's daily 09:45 EDT question; "Oh dear, do we now want to take a U.S. based trade and run the risk of a price move stranding things with no momentum, as 80% of U.S. sessions do?"

The law of probability says that U.S. trade will not follow through with sustainable breaks on new positions, and with what came before the Wall Street open, we already have seen that the bullish S&P start could literally go anywhere. TheLFB equity tracking system shows that the main components that we use to gauge S&P momentum has only four out of thirty companies trading in the green.

If this move is to hold, and by default the Usd is to get weaker, a huge raft of volume needs to hit that lifts all stock indices, as well as oil and gold trade. Not to say that could not happen, but it is questionable as to whether it will hit and hold before the European markets go into their close at 10:30 EDT.

The fact that gold moved $10, or 1% in five minutes at the open, and the S&P managed to tag on 0.3%, leaves another question as to why oil has not moved too far, and further enforces the feeling that the Wednesday move could hold. The majors are so far from their previous session highs or lows, that actually breaking new ground and holding for a ride on the dollar is very unlikely; unless a volume tsunami hits.

There is nothing at all clear-cut about the picture we have on the major pairs, and the global market Usd drivers. All are overbought in the near-term, and the major pairs are all dealing with daily chart Simple Moving Average areas that really are creating massive support and resistance areas to work through.

Volume and speculative interest is very light, creating an environment that offers plenty of volatility, but also failed breaks, in the same measure. Global equity trade is flat, and commodity markets are also flat-lining after efforts to hold support this week. In all, not an easy environment to issue high probability signals.

Times To Trade

Trading the OTC (over the counter) currency markets offers an opportunity to hedge stock and bond investing, but really is more of a traded market following the ebbs and flows of global commerce than it is an investment arena to plan retirement from. Getting to know six major currency pairs would seem an easy task when compared to the tens of thousands of stock and bond options available for analysis.

Forex trade is not all about how each currency will move against the Usd, just as important is knowing when the market will have momentum, because that is key to not getting caught in reversals and snap-backs whilst leveraged at 100:1.

Setting times to trade really does make a lot of sense with the near-term view that forex valuations carry, and the fact that each 24 hour period has to absorb three regional commercial market's trade, in Asian, Europe and the U.S.

There are three main forex moving times that regularly garner attention, and therefore offer an ability to move prices with momentum. They are the 2am EDT German Dax futures market getting underway, the 6-7am EDT London gold/oil fixings and LIBOR rates being set, and the 11am EDT European market close.

Outside of that, the return from lunch in Japan between 11pm EDT and midnight, and the closing of the NYMEX markets at 2.30 pm EDT really are the only other times that prices move substantially and then hold.

At the end of the U.S. session the pattern is for Asian markets to try and initially reverse U.S. trade direction, although the lack of volume tends to soon allow pairs to find and hold support areas. The European markets tend to move in the same direction as Asian trade, and then Chicago based futures movement will try to reverse things back in the direction of where the U.S. previously closed, and re-set their books as the London fixings are placed between 5-6am EDT.

At 10:30am GMT in London, telephone bids for the gold and oil fixings take place, something that sets the morning clearing prices for bullion and crude dealers that (are then adjust once again at 3.30pm GMT). At 11am GMT each day in London the British Bankers Association set the inter-bank LIBOR rates, something that sets the tone for lending rates between financial market participants.

The London fixings tend to force Chicago based futures markets into a re-alignment program at 06:00 EDT that replicates the newly set fair values on oil, gold, and lending rates, and by default tends to then impact Usd based currency values. It is rare for the U.S. not to push back each morning and reverse the pattern of forex trade that came before, especially if a sizeable move has happened in overnight forex trade.

Forex traders really need to know what is going to trigger the technical set-ups, and therefore be prepared to ride momentum while it lasts, and to cap expectancy and exposure in things are moving against the near-term trend. In the trading forex arena there are different things to look for than in the equity and bond investment world; a week in forex absorb fifteen regional equity market moves, and all of which are movinmg for varying commercial regions, and using foreign exchange to hedge commitments, repatriate overseas profits, align reserve values, and garner swap interest.

The European and NYMEX close (11am EDT and 2.30 pm EDT are the U.S. based things to get out of the way, because then, maybe, the equity markets can reveal where they really want to go, and by default send the Usd in the opposite direction. Traders looking for moves outside of 2am, 6am, 11am, and maybe 2:30 EDT, may just find themselves sitting and waiting, wondering why they just bought the high of the day that then reversed.

Try it out, take a look at a volume study in forex futures, or look at the longest daily 30 minute candles, and see on average what time they hit. Then look at the times that nothing happens. That is not luck, it is the forex market tagging along, following the ebbs and flows of global commercial trade.

As the global economy travels trades its way out of the business cycle trough phase, the leaning is towards looking at S&P futures trade to confirm near-term sentiment, and risk tolerance. The speculators are never too far away from the S&P in times of fear; either selling into the fear of loss, or buying into the fear of missing profits. That is the reason for so much near-term volatility, and that is how things will stay until signs of GDP expansion are seen globally.

Until then it seems that the 24 hour a day S&P futures trade will set up the eight hour S&P cash market for currency traders to monitor, that will be followed by the S&P futures market tracking the 16 hours of Asian and European activity. Forex will follow that equity trend, at least until interest rates start to rise globally, and economic expansion takes place. At that time interest rate differentials will take over the valuation of forex pairs, to the greater degree.

Trading the Dollar With USDX

The US dollar index (USDX) is an important analytical tool for traders in just about any market. The USDX is actually a futures contract which means that if you have a futures trading account you could trade this instrument like corn, oil, gold or currency futures contracts. However rather than trading the USDX most retail traders use it as way to analyze the relative strength or weakness of the US Dollar in general.

The USDX compares the US dollar (USD) against a basket of other world currencies. This basket represents most of the largest free floating, major currencies in the world on a weighted average basis. The currencies included are the euro, yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. Each of these currencies are given a weight within the index with the largest weight given to the euro.

The euro is typically half the total weight included in the average the chart for the USDX and will often look like a chart of the USD/EUR futures contract. Spot forex traders will notice that the USDX is very similar to an inverse of the EUR/USD spot forex pair. However, because the USDX includes 6 different currencies it is a better measure of USD strength than any single currency pair including the EUR/USD.

The USDX was established in 1973 with a starting value of 100. That means that if the USDX is measuring less than 100 the USD has lost relative value compared to what it was worth in 1973 and if it is above 100 then the USD is stronger than it was in 1973. Currently the USDX is hovering around 82, which means that it is 18% weaker than its starting value. The dollar has not always been weaker than it was in 1973, the USDX showed a 20% improvement in value in the USD in 2001 and 2002.

The USDX is particularly useful for traders in the bond, currency and gold markets. For example, a strong USD is usually correlated with falling gold prices, which means that gold traders are very interested in a break out on the USDX even though they may not be trading the USD directly. Similarly, global crises often increase demand for the USD as investors seek a shelter from uncertainty. This will drive the value of the USD up and often bond yields will drop. These are just two examples of how the USDX is one more inter-market tool you can use for evaluating capital flows and finding new trading opportunities.

Charts for the USDX on the pairs analysis pages in the forex section of the Learning Markets website but if you are interested in trading the USDX you have two attractive alternatives. First, you can open a futures account. There are futures and options on futures available on the USDX that trade on the New York Board of Trade.

Second you can trade ETFs that track the USDX itself. PowerShares offers two ETF alternatives for trading the index. The first is UUP which invests in long futures contracts on the USDX, which means it will move the same direction as the dollar index. The second is UDN which invests in short futures contracts on the USDX, which means that it will rise in value when the dollar index weakens. If you are bullish the dollar you could buy UUP and if you are bearish the dollar you could buy UDN.

Learning to Trade the Forex Market

Getting started
The beauty of forex is you can get started right away without any money and without having any idea what you are doing. To do this you open what is called a demo forex account. In your demo account you trade with fake money and you have fun learning how to trade for real. Your goal is to build a sustainable track record of successfully trading with fake money. Once you have done this you will be ready to try trading with real money.
The transition from fake money to real money can be tricky. Sort of like learning to fly in a flight simulator and then flying a real airplane for the first time. Each time you enter the flight simulator your skills will be improving and your confidence increasing, until you get to the point you feel you are ready for the real thing. In theory, if you master the flight simulator, the real airplane will not be a problem.
In reality, as you're walking toward that real airplane for the first time, your heart will be pumping and you will be scared. Likewise when you are about to pull the trigger on your first real money trade your heart will be pumping and you will be scared.
Flying a plane for real and trading forex for real are similar in many ways:

1. If you are reckless flying the plane you will get yourself killed. If you are reckless trading forex you will lose all your money
2. Flying entails taking off, obeying the rules of safe flying, and landing safely. Forex trading entails entering a trade, controlling your risk, and exiting safely.
3. When flying an airplane your success requires you get all three (takeoff, safety, and landing) right. In forex trading your success requires that you get all three (entry, risk, and exit) right
4. The best pilots always put safety first. The best forex traders always put safety first.

Flying a plane and trading forex for real are different in one key way

1. To become a pilot there is government mandated formal education and professional training requirements; as a result of this formal education and professional training, few pilots crash and burn. To become a real money forex trader there is no government mandated formal education and no professional training requirements; as a result, almost all forex traders crash and burn

Formal education and professional training
Whether you want to be a jet fighter pilot or a weekend recreational pilot of a two-seater, you need formal education and professional training to insure your safety and success. If you want to become a full-time forex trader, a part-time forex trader, or just dabble from time to time you need at least some education and training to insure your safety and success; especially if you're serious about making money from forex trading.
Education choices - getting started
I suggest you start withBabyPips.com; it's described as “a free, funny, and easy-to-understand guide for teaching beginners how to trade the forex market”. Here you will learn about the forex market, forex trading, technical analysis, and fundamental analysis. There is also practical advice on choosing a forex broker and how to go about opening your broker account and getting started with your forex trading. If you prefer reading a book, “Forex for Dummies” is a good place to start. Brian Dolan, one of the authors, is a brilliant guy and he has done an excellent job in laying out the forex basics in easy to understand language. I wrote an article “Forty five ways not to lose money trading forex”, which can easily be located with a Google search; many traders have told me it helped them a lot. You may want to read that one; knowing the common mistakes new forex traders make may be helpful.
As you study the basics, you will likely find the technical tools that you think will suit you. It's a good idea to do further research on those technical tools; three excellent free sources of further information on technicals (and fundamentals) are Investopedia.com, fxstreet.com, and forexfactory.com
Your broker will supply free charting software for you. Personally, I like netdania.com charts; they are very user friendly and there is a free demo version, which I have been happily using for the past 5 years.
Technical tools I use
I love trading. I was a professional forex bank trader for 20 years. I retired in 2004 and have been trading my own account since then. I like to trade everything from one minute charts to daily charts. The technical tools I like best are:

1. Simple moving averages
2. Range breakouts
3. Momentum breakouts
4. Swings
5. Fibonacci retracements
6. Gartley patterns
7. Candlestick patterns
8. Bar reversals
9. Correlations
10. Daily high and low

There is plenty of free information about all of these technical tool available on the internet
Fundamental tools I use

1. Market view - what currencies are traders focusing on and why
2. Central bank speak - what are the key moneymen in each country saying and why
3. Interest rates - how much interest you get for holding onto a currency matters
4. Economic news - the reality of employment, retail sales, and housing matters

A good free website to track all the upcoming important scheduled economic news is forexfactory.com. Kathy Lien is excellent at the fundamentals. Her daily comments can be found at fx360.com.
Where do you begin?
Of course, if you are a new forex trader it takes time to figure out your niche and if you have a job you will need to choose a particular focus of your forex trading. I still think it helps to at least get some exposure to all the tools, both technical and fundamental, that work best in forex trading, and then choose the ones you like. There is plenty of free information on the internet to choose from.
Consider formal education and training
Once you've done your independent study you may choose to try trading forex on your own. If you have the available resources, it may be a good idea to get specialized training / mentoring; there are some good ones out there.
The argument that if a trader was any good he would not be teaching is not without merit. However, there is this to consider. A good trader manages risk effectively. Trading has its ups and downs but getting paid to teach trading is a winning trade every time. Why not do both and improve the slope and the volatility of the earnings curve.
That is not to say there are not a lot of disreputable forex educators out there. Do your due diligence and you can find a good one.